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The November sales figures are in for Niagara and they don’t really hold any surprises. There are, however, a couple of things worth noting. First, the number of sales, while continuing stronger than the same month last year, are down from the month of October. This is consistent with what we would expect to see this time of year. The market begins to slow around the middle of November and the brakes are applied right into the new year. In fact, with rare exceptions, the entire real estate industry could pretty much go on holiday from mid-December till the second week of January without much impact. This trend will be quite evident next month when we look at the sales totals for the month of December. 

With one month to go in the year, it’s interesting to note that across the Region a total of 7,208 sales were reported in 2019 compared with a total of 6,481 for the same 11 month period in 2018. That’s an activity increase of 727 units or 11.22%. 

*Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members inputted MLS sales.

Looking at prices, we see a moderating trend in November pretty much across the Region. Here again this is not surprising for this time of year. There are some significant deviations from what is expected in certain markets. Fonthill/Pelham for example saw the average price change from $583,413 in October to $818,015 in November while Grimsby on the other hand went from an average of $665,088 in October to only $579,263 in November. But keep in mind that Fonthill registered only 17 sales and Grimsby 40. In each case one or two large sales will radically affect the average. Across the Region, however, with a total of 596 sales, a drop in average price from $475,935 to $456,123 is probably much more reflective of what is going on. 

 
What is interesting is a contrast between the first half of the year and the last half of the year when it comes to changes in price. We have seen significant price increases in both 2018 and 2019. 2018 saw the average price in the Region go from $377,987 in January to $408,578 in December, an increase of 8.09% and this year prices went from $416,645 in January to $456,123 in November, an increase of 9.47%. But in both cases, pretty much all the increase took place in the first half of the year, especially the spring market. The prices in the second half of each year were relatively flat and in fact fell off a bit at the end of the year.

*Sales data provided by the Niagara Association of Realtors and the Hamilton-Burlington Realtors Association as submitted through Brokerage Members inputted MLS sales.

Mind you, for anyone who is a property owner in Niagara, a year over year increase of around 10% is very respectable regardless of when it occurs. But it is interesting to see the changes in momentum from spring to fall.
 
Looking forward, we expect to see a moderation in activity certainly at the end of the year, and perhaps a slight moderation in price as well. People have other things than real estate on their minds over the Christmas season, and this decrease in demand does impact price in some cases. But don’t expect the lull to continue into the new year.