Now that we’ve all had a chance to acquaint ourselves with January 2020, let’s look back on the last couple years to see what the housing market looked like in 2018 and 2019. After all, it was Steve Jobs who said: “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards.” The retrospective is always fascinating to me because, even though I can’t “see” what’s in store for real estate, looking back gives me enough insight to prepare myself and my clients for the year ahead.
The Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR) publishes yearly comparisons of the region’s housing prices, as well as pricing between cities, including St. Catharines and Niagara-on-the-Lake, for a more detailed analysis. These reports are prefaced by a brief overview and commentary from NAR’s executives.
The January 2019 Market Report outlined some key findings:
· Number of sales: statistics show 428 processed sales in January of 2019. This number represents a 15.4% increase from January 2018-Janurary 2019.
· Residential average sale price: $403,659. This represented an increase of 16% when compared with 2018.
· According to Carolyn Bones-Poley, the CEO of NAR, 2019 had the best start of any other year in the decade (except for 2015 and 2017).
· Average time home spent on the market: approximately 50 in January 2019 compared to 46 in January 2018.
Here’s a breakdown by city:
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Source: Niagara Association of Realtors [http://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/Stats%20January%202019.pdf]
2018 was an interesting year for Niagara real estate and boasted record highs in sales prices and volume (which was, in part, due to an influx of buyers from the GTA). This left many scratching their heads. Would prices keep climbing into 2019? Or was it too good to be true for would-be sellers?
Well, for one thing, even though the number of houses for sale in Niagara increased in January of 2019, Carolyn Bones-Poley pointed out that, because “current inventories are still less than half the long-run average,” housing prices in 2019 held on to gains that we saw from the previous year. We do see list prices continuing to increase in most areas from 2018 to 2019, and with St. Catharines leading the pack for total number of listings and sales.
As is typical in the winter months, my research predicted that come January, prices would lower and turnover rate for homes would slow. This knowledge enabled me to better direct my clients as we entered 2019. With less competition in the market during winter, homebuyers had more flexibility with negotiating offers, and sellers who prepared to stand out in a sea of for sale signs were rewarded.
However, less competition doesn’t always mean that sales close quickly; it’s my responsibility to set realistic expectations for my sellers so that we can take action if homebuyers aren’t making offers as quickly as we anticipated, or come up with ways to make their home more appealing in winter.
The good news for sellers was that my winter buyers were serious about buying houses for sale in Niagara. You don’t get the same volume of people who are “just looking” at winter open houses—you get potential buyers. Even though conducting strong negotiations for my buyers is important to me 365 days of the year, I amp up the stakes in the winter to ensure that negotiations work for prospective homebuyers. I consult the date to use market trends to your benefit!
I wonder what 2020 will bring to the Niagara real estate market this year. Will prices keep rising? If you’re as eager as I am to get a piece of the 2020 real estate pie, contact me at my St. Catharines real estate office today!